Nonlinear Dynamics

In previous studies by the author on binocular vision with the asymmetric eye (AE), which models a healthy human eye with misaligned optical components, the results were primarily presented in the Rodrigues vector (RV) framework and supported by simulations and 3D visualizations in GeoGebras dynamic geometry environment. In this paper, the novel geometric kinematics of the human eye, that is, the eye with misaligned optics, and simplified assumptions about the eye rotations (the eyes translational movements are disregarded), are developed within the framework of rigid-body rotations. The originality of the analysis lies in a precise geometric decomposition of a full rotation of the eyes posture into a torsion-free rotation (the geodesic part) and a torsional rotation (the non-geodesic extension of the geodesic part). This decomposition is extended to the corresponding decomposition of the angular velocity. A novel derivation of the eyes angular velocity from the RV formulation of the eye kinematics is proposed.

This work focuses on the global and partial identification problem for fractional differential equations. We provide a general numerical procedure based on global and local optimization algorithms with two refinements for biological systems that ensure solution positivity and homogeneous parameter units. The method is applied to a new fractional model of Dengue outbreak called the Fractional Homogeneous Nishiura (FHN) model, calibrated using data of newly infected people in Cape Verde. We show that our identification method yields a better fit between data and model solutions than previous approaches and that our FHN model captures the dynamics of Dengue more closely than existing systems.

A novel mathematical framework to define the threshold of action potentials in excitable cells is presented. Unlike previously applied methods that rely on approximations or specific fixed-point bifurcations, the approach focuses on the geometry of membrane potential trajectories. Specifically, the focus is on the concavity changes during the upstroke of an electrical pulse. These changes in concavity form a curve of inflection points that defines a region in phase space crossed by all the action potentials in the system, and containing no non-action potential trajectories. Such region is called the excitability region and its size can be measured, thus providing a measure for the excitability of a dynamical system, and a way to compare the excitability between systems representing different biological phenotypes and stimulus conditions. The work transforms the traditionally vague physiological concept of excitability into a rigorous analytical description applicable across continuous, single compartment models of electrical excitability.

Voltage perturbations to a repetitively firing Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) model of neuronal spiking in the bistable regime with coexisting limit cycle and stable steady node can either lead to the spikes phase resetting or collapse to the stable steady state. The latter describes a non-firing hyperpolarized quiescent state of the neuron despite the presence of constant external current. Using asymptotic phase response curve (PRC), the impact of voltage perturbations on a repetitively firing HH model is studied here while it is diffusively coupled to another HH model under identical external stimulation. It is observed that the pre-perturbation state of synchronization and the coupling strength critically determine the PRC response of the perturbed HH dynamics. Higher coupling strengths of perfectly in-phase (anti-phase) synchronized HH models shrink (expand) the combinatorial space of perturbation strengths and the oscillation phases causing collapse to the quiescent state. This indicates reduced (enlarged) basin of attraction, viz. the null space, associated with the steady state in the HH phase space. The findings bear important implications to the spiking dynamics of diverse interneurons, as well as special cases of pyramidal neurons, coupled through electrical synapses via. gap junctions, and suggest the role of gap junction plasticity in tuning vulnerability to quiescent state in the presence of biological noise and spikelets.

Mass-conserved reaction-diffusion systems are used as mathematical models for various phenomena such as cell polarity. Numerical simulations of this system present transient dynamics in which multiple stripe patterns converge to spatially monotonic patterns. Previous studies indicated that the transient dynamics are driven by a mass conservation law and by variations in the amount of substance contained in each pattern, which we refer to as "pattern flux". However, it is challenging to mathematically investigate these pattern dynamics. In this study, we introduce a reaction-diffusion compartment model to investigate the pattern dynamics in view of the conservation law and the pattern flux. This model is defined on multiple intervals (compartments), and diffusive couplings are imposed on each boundary of the compartments. Corresponding to the transient dynamics in the original system, we consider the dynamics around stripe patterns in the compartment model. We derive ordinary differential equations describing the pattern dynamics of the compartment model and analyze the existence and stability of equilibria for the reduced ODE with respect to the boundary parameters. For a specific parameter setting, we obtained results consistent with previous studies. Moreover, we present that the stripe patterns in the compartment model are potentially stabilized by changing the parameter, which is not observed in the original system. We expect that the methodology developed in this paper is extendable to various directions, such as membrane-induced pattern control.

BackgroundTo control leishmaniasis, chemotherapy drugs are currently under development. However, these drugs often exhibit poor efficacy and are associated with toxicity, adverse effects, and drug resistance. At present, no specific drug is available for the treatment of leishmaniasis. Meanwhile, vaccine research is ongoing. Recent studies have analysed some experimental vaccines using mathematical models. AimIn previous work, drug targeting was focused on the entire human body rather than specifically addressing infected macrophages and parasites. In our current approach, we aim to eliminate infected macrophages and parasites through nano-drug design. Specifically, we utilise two types of nanoparticles: iron oxide and citric acid-coated iron oxide. Moving forward, we plan to advance this strategy using mathematical modelling of macrophage-parasite interactions. MethodsWe design PDE-based models of macrophages and parasites, incorporating cytokine dynamics, to support nano-drug development. Drug efficacy is estimated using posterior distributions to analyse phenotypic fluctuations of macrophages and parasites during the design phase. We investigate implicit and semi-implicit treatment schemes, focusing on energy decay properties. To model drug flow during treatment, we introduce a three-phase moving boundary problem. Comparative analyses are conducted to evaluate macrophage and parasite behaviour with and without treatment. Finally, the entire framework is implemented within a virtual lab environment. ResultsThe results show that the nano-drug exhibits better efficacy compared to combined drug doses. We analysed and compared two types of nano-drug particles: iron oxide and citric acid-coated iron oxide. We discuss how the drug effectively targets and eliminates infected macrophages and parasites. ConclusionOur models results and simulations will support researchers conducting further studies in nano-drug design for leishmaniasis. These simulations are performed within a virtual lab environment.

The brain is believed to process information efficiently in a different manner from deep learning-based artificial intelligence (AI). Brain-like next-generation AI is gaining attention owing to its potential to perform human-like, highly adaptive, robust, and power-efficient computation. To realize such AI, one crucial approach is the bottom-up implementation of the neuronal systems, capturing their electrophysiological characteristics in electronic circuits. However, this neuromorphic approach generally focuses on simplified neuronal models that do not refer to many biological findings. Developing closer-to-brain models is a natural direction that serve as a fundamental computing model for next-generation AI. One of the constraints of neuromorphic circuits is the bit resolution of synaptic efficacy memory, as the memory footprint scales with it precision. Although low-resolution synaptic efficacy is essential for minimizing memory circuit footprint and energy consumption, it generally leads to performance degradation in many tasks such as the spatio-temporal spike pattern detection. This study proposed a closer-to-brain learning rule that incorporates heterosynaptic plasticity (HP) induced by glutamate spillover. It is demonstrated that our model mitigates the performance degradation associated with low-bit resolution synaptic efficacy, achieving the pattern detection success rate with 3-bit resolution synaptic efficacy, which is comparable to 64-bit floating-point precision. Furthermore, the findings of the study indicate that HP based model accelerates the convergence of the synaptic effcacy and effectively potentiates the synapses relevant to the pattern detection while suppressing irrelevant ones, thereby promoting a bimodal distribution of synaptic efficacies. These findings may provide a basic framework for constructing an energy-efficient, brain-like next-generation AI that maintains high performance under hardware constraints.

Experimental studies show that tumor cells adopt migratory or proliferative phenotypes depending on the local extracellular matrix (ECM). In this work, we propose a minimal go-or-grow invasion model, comprising two specialist cell phenotypes: proliferating and migratory, with phenotypic switching and cell migration depending on local ECM density. Numerical simulations of this model reveal that the spatial arrangement of proliferative and migratory cells depends on the choice of phenotypic switching function. We then ask whether this specialist cell-phenotype model can be reduced to a generalist cell-phenotype model. We derive a relationship between the reduced model and go-or-grow model in the fast phenotypic switching regime. We observe that the reduced model captures the dynamics of the original model, for a range of realistic phenotypic switching functions. We analytically derive the minimum traveling wave speed of the reduced model in a homogeneous ECM bed. Moreover, using linear stability analysis on the go-or-grow model, we recover the same wave speed expression. In addition, we numerically explore how the key parameters influence the traveling wave speed profile. Our analysis indicated the counter-intuitive result that the wave speed is independent of the matrix degradation rate, and our simulations show that, at most, the speed is weakly dependent on this parameter.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has continuously evolved since its emergence in the human population in 2019. As of 1st August 2025, more than 1,700 Omicron subvariants have been designated by the Pango nomenclature system. The Pango nomenclature system designates a new lineage based on genetic and epidemiological information of SARS-CoV-2 strains. However, there is a possibility that strains that have similar genetic backgrounds and the same phenotype are given different Pango lineage names. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, called FindPart-w, which can identify groups of viral lineages that share the same relative effective reproduction numbers. We introduced a new lineage replacement model, called the constrained RelRe model, which constrains groups of lineages to have the same relative effective reproduction numbers. The FindPart-w algorithm searches the equality constraints that minimise the Akaike Information Criterion of constrained RelRe models. Using hypothetical observation count data created by simulation, we found that the FindPart-w algorithm can identify groups of lineages having the same relative effective reproduction number in a practical computational time. Applying FindPart-w to actual real-world data of time-stamped lineage counts from the United States, we found that the Pango lineage nomenclature system may have given different lineage names to SARS-CoV-2 strains even if they have the same relative effective reproduction number and similar genetic backgrounds. In conclusion, this study showed that viruses that had the same relative effective reproduction number were identifiable from temporal count data of viral sequences. These findings will contribute to the future development of lineage designation systems that consider both genetic backgrounds and transmissibilities of lineages.

Sex-related differences in the aging of the human brain were studied using large array of experimental data. The open archive CamCan was used as a source of data: the magnetic encephalograms, co-registered with magnetic resonance images of the head, were obtained for each of 434 subjects (ages 18-87 years, mean age 54.7 {+/-}18.4): 217 females (ages 18-87 years, mean age 54.5 {+/-}18.4) and 217 males (ages 18-84 years, mean age 54.8 {+/-}18.3). Recordings were split in 10-year age cohorts, each cohort consisted of equal number of men and women to calculate average intersex characteristics correctly. By massively solving the inverse problem, functional tomograms were calculated - the spatial distribution of elementary spectral components. Physiological noise was eliminated by joint analysis of MEG-based functional tomogram and magnetic resonance image for each subject. Then multichannel spectra were transformed into time series of the power of elementary current dipoles. Summary electric powers were calculated in six conventional frequency bands (1-4 Hz - delta; 4-8 Hz - theta; 8-13 Hz - alpha; 13-21 Hz - beta1; 21-30 Hz - beta2; 30-48 Hz - gamma), and sex differences in age-related changes were examined. It was found that in the youngest age cohort (18-29 years) the summary electrical power of the brain for males is 1.5 times greater than such power for females. For adults (30-69 years), male and female powers are approximately equal, while in older cohorts (70-87 years), male total brain power is greater. Age dependencies in various frequency bands are generally different for men and women, excluding higher frequencies 21-48 Hz. Basic conclusion can be made that after intersex averaging total electric power of the human brain is invariant through the lifespan from 18 to 87 years. The proposed method of joint MEG and MRI analysis can be used for further study of the sex-related details of brain sources in their connection with age changes.

A key component of intraneuronal communication is the modulation of postsynaptic firing frequencies by stochastic transmitter release from presynaptic neurons. The time interval between successive postsynaptic firings is called the inter-spike interval (ISI), and understanding its statistics is integral to neural information processing. We start with a model of an excitatory chemical synapse with postsynaptic neuron firing governed as per a classical integrate-and-fire model. Using a first-passage time framework, we derive exact analytical results for the ISI statistical moments, revealing parameter regimes driving precision in postsynaptic action potential timing. Next, we extended this analysis to include both an excitatory and an inhibitory presynaptic connection onto the same postsynaptic neuron. We consider both a fixed postsynaptic-firing threshold and a threshold that adapts based on the postsynaptic membrane potential history. Our analysis shows that the latter adaptive threshold can result in scenarios where increasing the inhibitory input frequency increases the postsynaptic firing frequency. Moreover, we characterize parameter regimes where ISI noise is hypo-exponential or hyperexponential based on its coefficient of variation being less than or higher than one, respectively.

The phenomenon of splitting was originally observed in hamsters which, after prolonged exposure to constant light, exhibit two rest/wake cycles within a subjective day. Splitting is a consequence of the left and right suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN) falling out of synchrony. While it is known that split activity is characterized by an antiphase relationship between the left and right SCN and between the core and shell within each hemisphere, the role of the commissural projections that connect the right and left SCN is not known. In the present study, we investigate the impact of the inter-hemispheric connections on the split and unsplit dynamics of a computational model of the bilateral SCN. Our model has 4 nodes corresponding to each right and left core and shell. We simulated our bilateral model under different lighting conditions and measured its period and the phase relationships among the 4 nodes. To further characterize the dynamics of the system, we performed a bifurcation analysis. We found that the bilateral model automatically splits unless entrained by bright light/dark cycles, or unless it has excitatory inter-hemispheric connections. This suggests that excitatory cross-connections may be important for freerunning behavior. We found that constant light of varying intensities transitions the model between split and unsplit activity only in very limited conditions, but the strength and polarity of the contralateral connections play a much greater role in this dynamical transition. These findings suggest that splitting may involve plasticity of the inter-hemispheric connections of the SCN.

As social beings, humans make decisions partly based on social interaction. Observing the behavior of others can lead to learning from and about them, potentially increasing trust and prompting trust-based behavioral changes. Observation-based decision making involves different neural structures. The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) are known as neural structures mainly involved in processing emotional and cognitive decision values, respectively, while the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) plays a pivotal role as a social hub, integrating the afferent expectancy signals from OFC and LPFC. This paper presents a neurocomputational model of the interplay between observational learning and trust, as well as their role in individual decision-making. Our model elucidates and predicts the emotional and rational behavioral changes of an individual influenced by observing the action-outcome association of an alleged expert. We have modeled the neurodynamics of three cortical structures (OFC, LPFC, and ACC) and their interactions, where the neural oscillatory properties, modeled with Dynamic Bayesian Probability, represent the observers attitude towards the expert and the decision options. As an example of an everyday behavioral situation related to climate change, we use the choice of transportation between home and work. The EEG-like simulation outputs from our model represent the presumed brain activity of an individual making such a choice, assuming the decision-maker is exposed to social information.

Canine rabies persists in NDjamena (Chad) despite vaccination campaigns exceeding 70% coverage, suggesting a role for dog mobility and spatial heterogeneity. We propose a metapopulation SEIR model incorporating distance-modulated dog movements and an explicit vaccinated class. Analysis of the isolated patch establishes global stability of the disease-free equilibrium via a Lyapunov function. For the metapopulation, a composite Lyapunov function shows that elimination is governed by a reproduction number [R]v. Calibrated with field data (2012-2022), simulations reveal that uniform vaccination of both patches reduces [R]v by 46% (from 2.84 to 1.52) but does not achieve elimination, while targeted strategies are less effective. These results demonstrate that exhaustive vaccination coverage across the entire urban network and increased vaccination intensity are necessary to eliminate canine rabies in NDjamena. Our model provides a quantitative framework for planning effective control strategies.

Against the backdrop of global climate change and accelerating population mobility in 2025, chikungunya fever (CHIKF) exhibited a trend of worldwide spread, significantly increasing the difficulty of controlling tropical mosquito-borne diseases. To enhance the precision of intervention strategies, this study developed an age- and sex-structured human-mosquito interaction dynamic model based on data from the largest CHIKF outbreak ever recorded in China, and conducted a targeted analysis of prevention and control strategies. By decomposing the basic reproduction number and examining population heterogeneity, asymptomatic males aged 15-59 years were identified as the core transmission group. Optimal control analysis revealed that the synergistic implementation of three measures-- reducing the effective human-to-mosquito transmission rate, reducing the effective mosquito-to-human transmission rate, and suppressing mosquito population density--could reduce the overall infection rate by 95.7586%. Among these, mosquito population suppression should be prioritized as a universal core strategy; however, its protective effect on females aged 60 years and above was relatively weak, warranting particular attention. The study further demonstrated that asymmetric intensity combinations targeting these three intervention pathways--such as intensity profiles of "10%, 90%, 90%" or "60%, 80%, 90%"--could achieve effective outbreak control. This research elucidates population-specific transmission patterns and key pathways for intervention intensity, providing a theoretical and strategic foundation for the precise control of mosquito-borne diseases. It also provides actionable operational insights to support rapid response and strategy optimization for future emerging outbreaks. Author summaryCHIKF is a mosquito-borne viral disease that is gradually spreading from tropical regions to other areas. To achieve more precise control of this disease, we developed an age- and sex-structured analytical model based on the largest CHIKF outbreak in China, aiming to provide a scientific basis for responding to potential future outbreaks with inherent uncertainties. The study found that asymptomatic males aged 15-59 years were the primary drivers of transmission and should be prioritized as a key population for reducing viral spread in prevention efforts. When evaluating the effectiveness of different intervention strategies, females aged 60 years and above were the least affected by the implemented measures, indicating that this group should strengthen personal protection to lower their infection risk. Among all control measures, mosquito suppression was the most effective, suggesting that vector control strategies should be prioritized in future outbreak responses.

Coinfection of COVID-19 and malaria in endemic regions may generate complex epidemiological interactions that influence susceptibility patterns, disease burden, and outbreak risk. Although malaria-acquired immunity has been hypothesized to modulate host responses to other infections, its population-level implications for COVID-19 transmission under uncertainty remain insufficiently understood. In this study, we develop a deterministic-stochastic compartmental model for the coupled dynamics of COVID-19, malaria, and their co-infection. Malaria-acquired partial immunity is incorporated through a relative susceptibility parameter that reduces the risk of COVID-19 infection among malaria-recovered individuals. For the deterministic system, we establish positivity, boundedness, an invariant feasible region, and basic reproduction numbers for the COVID-19-only and malaria-only subsystems. We then use numerical simulations to examine how immunity-mediated reductions in susceptibility may influence COVID-19 incidence, peak burden, hospitalization, and cumulative mortality. To account for environmental and transmission variability, we extend the deterministic model to an Ito stochastic differential equation framework and use repeated realizations to characterize uncertainty in epidemic trajectories, peak distributions, and outbreak risk. In addition, global sensitivity analysis based on partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) is performed to identify the parameters with the greatest influence on COVID-19 outcomes. Our results suggest that, under the assumed modeling framework, malaria-acquired partial immunity may reduce the peak infectious burden and cumulative mortality associated with COVID-19. The stochastic simulations further show substantial variability around deterministic trajectories and indicate a non-negligible probability of large outbreak events that are not fully captured by mean-field predictions alone. Overall, the proposed framework provides an uncertainty-aware, mechanistic basis for studying COVID-19-malaria co-dynamics and for assessing how interacting disease processes may shape epidemic outcomes in endemic settings.

A field trial was conducted using 10% lambda-cyhalothrin microcapsule suspension to provide a method for killing ticks and preventing diseases in outdoor gatherings of people or temporary resettlement places after disasters. In this study, three field experimental sites were selected, and each experimental site was set up with a test area and a control area. Before pesticide application, the tick density in three test areas and three control areas was surveyed using the flagging method. Subsequently, two methods were used for pesticide spraying: motorized fogging and electric constant-volume spraying (with the pesticide diluted 300 times). The relative density decline rate of ticks was calculated in three test sites on days 1, 7, 14, 21, and 28 after spraying, and all experimental areas achieved good tick-killing effects. Even without prohibiting wild animals, grazing sheep, and dogs (which are often infested with ticks and not treated) from entering the trial sites, spraying 10% lambda-cyhalothrin microcapsule suspension could maintain a tick-free (low-density) state for approximately 3-4 weeks. Our study provides an idea for controlling epidemics through tick elimination during the high incidence period of tick-borne diseases.

Infectious disease surveillance systems in tropical countries show that respiratory disease incidence generally manifests as year-round activity with weak fluctuations and irregular seasonality. Previously, using a ten-year time series of influenza-like illness (ILI) collected from outpatient clinics in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam, we found a combination of nonannual and annual signals driving these dynamics, but with unknown mechanisms. In this study, we use seven stochastic dynamical models incorporating humidity, temperature, and school term to investigate plausible mechanisms behind these annual and nonannual incidence trends. We use iterated filtering to fit the models and evaluate the models by comparing how well they replicate the combination of annual and nonannual signals. We find that a model including specific humidity, temperature, and school term best fits our observed data from HCMC and partially reproduces the irregular seasonality. The estimated effects from specific humidity and temperature on transmission are nonlinearly negative but weak. School dismissal is associated with decreased transmission, but also with low magnitude. Under these weak external drivers, we hypothesize that stochasticity makes a strong sub-annual cycle more likely to be observed in ILI disease dynamics. Our study shows a possible mechanism for respiratory disease dynamics in the tropics. When the external drivers are weak, the seasonality of respiratory disease dynamics is prone to the influence of stochasticity. Author SummaryAlthough the mechanisms driving seasonality of respiratory disease dynamics have been well-studied in temperate regions, they are unknown in the tropics. In this study, we used a 10-year influenza-like-illness (ILI) daily-reporting data set collected from outpatient clinics in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) in Vietnam to investigate the mechanisms associated with annual and nonannual ([~]215 days) periodic patterns in the data. By comparing seven mechanistic models against the data, we showed that the mechanism that best explains respiratory disease dynamics in HCMC is a stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model weakly driven by external drivers including specific humidity, temperature, and school term. The nonannual cycles duration is consistent with the inferred duration of immunity of the model. By showing the nonannual cycle as strong as in the data is only observed in stochastic model, we showed that the observed respiratory disease dynamics in HCMC is under the influence of stochasticity when external drivers are weak.

With significant population fractions in many societies who refuse vaccines, it is important to reconsider how vaccination is incorporated into compartmental epidemiology models. It is still most common to apply the vaccination rate to the entire class of susceptibles, rather than to use the more realistic assumption that the vaccination rate function should depend only on the population of susceptibles who are willing and able to receive a vaccination. This study uses a simple generic disease model to address two questions: (1) How much error is introduced in key model outcomes by neglecting vaccine unwillingness?, and (2) Can the error be reduced by incorporating vaccine unwillingness into the vaccination rate constant rather than the rate diagram? The answers depend greatly on the time scale of interest. For the endemic time scale, where longterm behavior is studied with equilibrium point analysis, the error in neglecting unwillingess is large and cannot be improved upon by decreasing the vaccination rate constant. For the epidemic time scale, where the first big epidemic wave is studied with numerical simulations, the error can still be significant, particularly for diseases that are relatively less infectious and vaccination programs that are relatively slow.

In this study, resource-constrained learning methods were developed as a model for the learning behavior of the fly brain, specifically the mushroom body. Recent research on the mushroom bodies of flies shows that unfamiliar odors activate certain output neurons (MBONs); however, these effects are rapidly suppressed upon repeated exposure to the same odor. Such MBON behaviors appear to reflect odor learning. We investigated how flies continue learning about odors throughout their lives despite their small brains. Researchers have suggested that learning about new odors can help flies forget existing memories. Therefore, we hypothesized that the main reason for continual learning is that it serves as a strategy for forgetting. To test the validity of this hypothesis, we designed three models using a kernel perceptron. This approach is suitable for estimating ongoing learning capacity within a budget. According to the results of computer simulations and theoretical analysis, the model demonstrated the importance of forgetting mechanisms for two reasons: first, to prepare for subsequent learning sessions, and second, to reduce the negative effects of deleting memories. Author summaryDrosophila mushroom body output neurons (MBONs) in the 3 compartment of the fruit fly brain are highly activated by novel odors, and their activation triggers alerting behavior. Interestingly, these specific neurons react only to unfamiliar odor information, suggesting they constantly undergo incremental learning of new odors. This study was aimed at constructing three incremental learning models of the MBON 3 neurons. Although there have been numerous studies on complex circuit designs to reproduce activation waveforms, herein we constructed a fundamental learning model based on a kernelized learning method. Since kernelized learning models interpret Hebbian learning as the addition or subtraction of kernel functions, the model is easy to analyze theoretically. Consequently, we conclude that the forgetting property observed in the MBON 3 neurons is essential for reducing error when learning occurs within a brain of limited capacity.